Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?

Prediction market on manifold. If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES. Otherwise NO after close. 10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors: outright deaths decrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe reduction in population replacement curves, over the global average etc. Our baseline for decrease in population not due to extraordinary deaths will be framed around the 2022 UN Projections (currently located here). This is not the defining point of truth if solid analysis and data comes to light, especially considering that the UN already takes some climate trends into account, but it's a great indicator of unexpected change, such as if life expectancy, fertility, or replacement rates drop precipitously in later versions of their projections. See also the OWID data linked in this comment. Some 2050 numbers from the 2022 projections: 9.7 billion humans 16.4% aged 65+ Fertility (births per woman): 2.1 Life expectancy: 77.2; 74.8 (M), 79.8 (F) --- 2050 (this): @/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans 2070: @/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-9f63de4b27a2 2090: @/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-a6501c666cd9

Liquidity: $4,280.75. Resolves: 1/1/2050.