When will human interpreters become unnecessary?

Prediction market on manifold. Interpreting is the oral version of translation. Currently, almost all interpreting is done by humans, although people use the spoken-word features of Google Translate and similar services while traveling, and services like OpenAI's Whisper are working on speech recognition/translation combinations. Professional services like Skype Translation seem not to have gained popularity. The market will resolve Yes once three separate meetings hosted by the US President (=involving the US President and held in the US) have been interpreted by a computer into three different languages. See also: [markets]Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The interpreting that counts must be the official interpretation used in the meeting—i.e., the interpretation between the US President and their guest must be performed by a computer (not a human).

Liquidity: $3,590. Resolves: 12/31/2099.