Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Prediction market on manifold. Recently humans have been closing the time gap between the world record Super Mario Bros speedrun, and the Tool Assisted Speedrun (TAS) theoretical optimal time for the game. It is possible that a human will complete a full perfect run of the game in the future, and tie the TAS time. Link: https://twitter.com/summoningsalt/status/1755314279715398099 [image]Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A run using input swapping (a technique recently banned from competitive speedrunning) will not count for resolution.

Liquidity: $2,000. Resolves: 1/1/2031.