Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI?

Prediction market on manifold. https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/3/ The full challenge is expected to be released in 2026. Resolves NO if the challenge is not released by then. Resolves YES if the best score for an AI by the end of 2026 is at most half of the baseline for average humans. Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The baseline for average humans is uncertain. The creator is still determining how to calculate it, but as a fallback may use 50% as the human baseline, which would mean this resolves YES only if no AI scores above 25%. Update 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has decided to resolve this market as N/A and create a new market with more precise resolution criteria, due to ambiguity around the "human baseline" figure.

24h Volume: $658.555. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.