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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. What counts? Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
Liquidity: $290. Resolves: 1/1/2028.