🏳️‍⚧️ What will happen to trans people in Kansas as a result of the newly passed bounty hunter bill? (Add your answers)

Prediction market on manifold. On Jan 28, SB244 / HB 2426 passed the Kansas house and senate and now heads to the governor’s desk. Among other things, it : gives a private right of action for people to sue other people in public or private bathrooms who (they believe) do not match the bathroom’s gender; requires gender non-conforming people to surrender their government identity documents in the case of a perceived mismatch (above is my interpretation) Reporting: Kansas Advancing Anti-Trans Bill Allowing Bounty Hunters to Patrol Private Business Bathrooms, Erin in the Morning ‘This bill spits on basic human decency’: Kansas Legislature passes bathroom ban without hearing, Kansas Reflector Kansas lawmakers pass ‘bathroom bill’, WIBW The raw bill text: SB244 HB2426 One relevant part: [image]👉 Resolution will prefer reporting from trans-aligned news sources, like Erin in the Morning, Them, or Alejandra Caraballo, in addition to mainstream or local news. Resolution that mentions social media may draw anecdotes from Bluesky, X, threads, etc. Bring everything to the comments for consideration, even extremist sources from either side. I may call bullshit on obviously fake anecdotes. This is a “will XYZ happen” market, not a “whose fault is it” market, which should hopefully aid objectivity., 👉 If the bill does not make it into law, the later questions referring to its effects will resolve NO, unless otherwise stated. 👉 I am trans. I don’t live in Kansas. I won’t bet on this market. There is intentional ambiguity around what counts as a “bathroom incident.” Let’s debate in the comments on a case by case basis. To me, a bathroom incident: broadly involves at least two people at least one of whom is offended by another person’s appearance/behavior/gender involves speculation about whether somebody is trans either occurs in Kansas, or wouldn’t otherwise be notable “but for” this law broadly results in claimed harm Most bathroom interactions are mundane and do not rise to the level of incidents. For example, finding a widely circulated social media post like “saw an ugly person in my gym bathroom this morning” doesn’t meet this bar unless it’s connected to being trans or connected to this law. A post about "i saw someone in my bathroom, is she secretly a man??" COULD count, if it's notable enough to rise to a level beyond interpersonal squabble (eg. it's widely reposted or reported). A news headline saying "person in bathroom escorted out of premises under suspicion for being the wrong gender" would easily count as the prototypical definition I had in mind. For the "inspection/enforcement" question: bathrooms are not generally guarded or actively inspected in Kansas. Seeing posts like "these guys say they're protecting women by guarding the bathroom" or "this computerized system makes sure only women can use the womens' bathroom" would count, especially if widely reposted or reported. Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "The veto will be overridden by a 2/3 majority" will resolve N/A if there is no veto.

Liquidity: $3,700. Resolves: 12/31/2026.