Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. 147 countries are currently party to the 1967 Protocol that extended the Geneva convention signed in 1951 (see the UNHCR website). Will any country leave the protocol by Dec 31, 2026? This market resolves YES if a party that was previously a party to the protocol decides to leave it. If a country splits in two and one country decides not to join within two years after being recognized by the UN, it will count as YES, otherwise, it will not be taken into account. If two countries regroup where one was a party of the protocol and the other was not, it will count as YES if the newly form country decides not to be party to the convention. The current list is: Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cabo Verde Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Congo Costa Rica Côte d'Ivoire Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Democratic Republic of the Congo Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Estonia Eswatini Ethiopia Fiji Finland France Gabon Gambia Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Haiti Holy See Honduras Hungary Iceland Iran Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lesotho Liberia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Malawi Mali Malta Mauritania Mexico Monaco Montenegro Morocco Mozambique Namibia Nauru Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria North Macedonia Norway Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Republic of Korea Republic of Moldova Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Samoa Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Serbia Seychelles Sierra Leone Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa South Sudan Spain St. Vincent and the Grenadines Sudan Suriname Sweden Switzerland Tajikistan Timor-Leste Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Türkiye Turkmenistan Tuvalu Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland United Republic of Tanzania United States of America Uruguay Venezuela Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe

Liquidity: $230. Resolves: 12/31/2026.