Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
Prediction market on manifold. I recently started looking for a more serious job, and I received two strong job offers that I now have to choose between. I'm seriously conflicted, so obviously I should turn to conditional prediction markets to make my decision for me. The first job, which I will refer to as "Genesis", (not their real name), is a support role for a market trading firm. Some coding, some research, helping design trading strategies, etc. Just doing whatever I'm needed for across several fields. The second job, which I will refer to as "Penguin", (not their real name either), is systems design work for a payment security firm. Some coding, but more high level pentesting-adjacent stuff; thinking about how their systems could be defeated and coming up with countermeasures. Both jobs are remote, not particularly time-bound (so I can choose when exactly to work), and full-time but with generous time off. Genesis pays only a small yearly salary, but has a generous end-of-year bonus that depends on both team and individual trading performance. They've tried to convince me that it will be high (told me the bonus could be more than 3x the base salary in a good year), but without any such stipulation in an actual contract I have to take that skeptically. Penguin pays with a lower-variance and more clearly-defined structure, about 4/5 in regular salary and 1/5 in equity. I'm a little concerned about the equity since from what I hear it's difficult to sell, but after meeting the company founders and employees I'm bullish on their prospects. (It's a pretty stable company, so I expect neither failure nor explosive growth. I think they'll remain generally successful and grow a bit faster than the overall market.) The biggest difference is in the intangibles: Genesis has an extremely fun company culture; several of the employees are already friends of mine, they've invited me to a retreat where the whole company just plays games for a week, etc. Many of them play Magic, many of them use Manifold. Very similar personality types to me, and the company actively encourages this culture. Penguin is, uh, not fun. They're much more corporate and normal. Not overly bureaucratic or anything; it's absolutely a "get stuff done" culture, I'm encouraged to talk openly and give feedback, and after all they were willing to make an offer to someone whose primary work experience is "Magic judge". But they're not, like, gamers. Company retreats I expect will be "boss who wants people to think he's fun" more than actual fun. On the other hand, Genesis's work product is just market trading, which strikes me as somewhat... nihilistic. I wouldn't be building anything of value to the world, we're just locked in a zero-sum game against less sophisticated traders. Sure we'll win, but like, ...why are we doing this? (I'm familiar with the "we're allocating capital more effectively" and "we're revealing important information about the future" arguments. This is plausible to me but I'm a little skeptical of factoring in these sorts of second-order effects too strongly.) Penguin has a concrete mission that I can be proud of; fraud is unambiguously bad, and especially with deepfakes and AI agents on the rise, more cutting-edge tools to combat sophisticated attackers is sorely needed. I would be able to look back and say "I helped build this socially important and valuable thing". (I plan to donate a large portion of my salary to charity either way, so the direct prosociality of the job can be offset with higher pay. But on a psychological level it's more satisfying to be contributing to the world directly rather than just donating to a distant charity.) I legit can't decide, but I need to give them an answer very soon. So I turn to the markets. Feel free to ask questions and give advice. (Details of offers may change as negotiations continue, and answers will resolve based on whatever final offer I accept. I reserve the right to N/A an answer if it turns out that resolving it accurately would violate an NDA or other obligation.)
Liquidity: $24,500. Resolves: 1/1/2030.