Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Prediction market on manifold. (destroyed as deterrence counts) Resolves yes if I think chip fabs were destroyed with >80% confidence and resolves no if I think chip fabs weren't destroyed with >90% confidence, otherwise resolves ambiguously. Resolves on Jan 1st 2030 or at any point I think substantial quantities of chip fabs were destroyed with >90% confidence. I will determine 'substantial' subjectively, but intend it to mean something like "chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years" Edit: "global chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years"

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2030.