By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?
Prediction market on manifold. I will pay attention to the statement "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%" and occasionally report my beliefs if asked in the comments. This market resolves YES to all the years greater than or equal to the first year I report YES on the underlying statement.
Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 1/2/2051.