Will I run a marathon in 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. I have a goal this year to run a marathon. I am male, late 20s, 6’4”/193cm and 210 lb/95 kg. I have been a casual runner for several years and have completed several half-marathons, most recently in 2022, but have never run further than the half marathon distance. My 5k PR is 21:13; my HM PR is 1:38:40. My plan is to roughly follow the Hal Higdon Novice 1 marathon training plan and run an event in late April. To resolve YES, I must complete an activity of marathon distance (26.2 miles/42.2 km) or longer by the end of 2026. I should run for the majority of the activity; walking 26.2 miles would not count. Resolves NO if I fail to do so by the end of the year. I will only buy YES shares in this market.

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.