Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?
Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if I feel I've gotten more money or other items of material value out of Manifold than I've put in. Charity donations count as material value, so if I make 10 million mana and donate it all, that'll count. But if charity donations go away and I can't do anything useful with mana I acquire, that doesn't count. It would also count if my time on Manifold contributes to getting me a job offer or something else of more concrete value than just "fun". My time counts as 0 value, unless I'm doing explicit work for someone who hired me, in which case I'll value my time at the next highest job prospect I have. I will also count @TobiasVyseri's profits towards this. (For example, she profited a few hundred dollars from the playing cards that Manifold paid her to design for Manifest.)
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/2/2030.