By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Prediction market on manifold. This resolution criterion may be refined as alignment research clarifies how to understand 'alignment'. On my 2023 understanding, this will resolve Yes if I believe with >95% credence that "with existing knowledge it is possible to train an aligned, state-of-the-art, general AI for less than 3x the cost of a state-of-the-art, general, unaligned AI trained that year". Otherwise this resolves No. If in 2028, I believe that no AI trained that year could engender a global catastrope (even with worst-case training methods) because of inadequate capabilities, then this resolves N/A. 'Aligned' here means the AI poses no risk of global catastrophe (unless the AI's user(s) are such that they consider posing as a first query/task to the AI how to engender such a catastrophe). 'General' here need not mean AGI; it roughly means that the AI supports similarly economically imactful capabilities to the most general unaligned contemporary deployed AI. 'Existing knowledge' need not be public information.

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/2/2028.