Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?
Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if there is an attempt made to scam someone that I personally know, by a technique made possible by generative AI by EoY 2026, and I learn about it. The scam attempt can use voice generation, video generation, or any similar form of analog AI based generation. The scammer must attempt to extract something (money/resources/info). The attempt need not be successful. The scam must target this individual specifically, by eg. faking voice of a friend, as opposed to eg. a mass circulated deepfake with a famous personality requesting money be sent to a bitcoin wallet. I'll only resolve positively if the target is someone I know in a personal capacity (friends/family/colleagues/etc). Resolves NO if I learn of no such scam by EoY 2026. There may be some subjective calls in the resolution of this market so I will not bet (I will resolve YES only if I'm 98%+ sure that it happened). See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/galaga/will-someone-i-know-be-targeted-by)
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.