Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?
Prediction market on manifold. Right now, I have a Roborock automatic vacuum cleaner. It's useful, but it frequently misses spots (corners and edges near the wall, areas around furniture that move frequently like my office chair, and sometimes the middle of the open floor for no apparent reason), gets stuck (carpets, wires, and angled legs of things like music stands), and cannot handle larger or more difficult bits of detritus on its own (hair, bird pellets). If a significant improvement can ever be had for a reasonable price, I will likely buy it. This market resolves to YES if I have an automated cleaner that I feel can reliably sweep/vacuum open spaces as well as a human can by 2028. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I am not requiring such an improved robot to be able to do things like clean stairs, behind furniture, or non-floor surfaces, nor that it be able to mop. I am requiring that it not require extensive fiddling. If I have to micromanage it by telling it exactly how to clean each location properly, what things to avoid, or tell it to go clean an area again because it missed something the first time, that's no good. It needs to be a simple set-it-and-forget-it system. (Except emptying its dustbin; having to do that myself won't disqualify the system.) Update 2026-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The automated cleaner is not required to traverse stairs to qualify for YES resolution. Multiple units (one per floor) would be acceptable if the living space has multiple floors.
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2028.