Loading
Prediction market on manifold. I started posting in my Substack (https://joeandseth.substack.com/publish/home) earnestly in April of 2025, ending up at 58 posts. I expect to have more time this year to write, as I will be continuing my semi-permanent sabbatical, aiming to finish my 48-state road trip, and spend a month or two in Japan. This market will resolve YES if I create 59 or more new posts of 1000 words or more before Jan 1, 2026, and NO otherwise. To incentivize myself, I reserve the right to bet YES up until the time I have 40 posts written in 2026. Current 2026 count (as of May 20): 32
24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.