By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child?
Prediction market on manifold. I don't currently plan any children, so this is mostly a market on whether I change my mind. Adopting a child counts. Being a biological father (or mother or whatever the hell I'll be in 2040) but not being part of the child's life doesn't count. Feel free to ask questions to estimate my chances, and I will feel free to accept or ignore them.
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2040.