Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?
Prediction market on manifold. Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass. Resolves N/A if no hardware product before 2028. Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are intentionally not defining "flop" further. Resolution will be based on their subjective judgment, using the standard of "I'll know it when I see it".
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2027.