Products

Will I give birth before age 30?

Prediction market on manifold. Personal info: I'm 23, engaged, and planning to get married in the next ~1.5 years. My fiancé and I want three kids. I have no serious corporate career ambitions and would happily be a stay-at-home mom. We have a comfortable dual income and we save a lot. We will probably raise our first child in Toronto or a similar urban area. I previously wanted to be a mom in my mid-twenties, but now that I've moved to a bigger city I'm enjoying my irresponsible life and would now put the odds I give birth before age thirty at 40-60%, which is a pretty big window. It might end up coming down to the specific life circumstances I'm in at age twenty-seven, which is hard to predict. Fertility info: No known fertility issues. I have a history of very painful, heavy periods but no formal diagnosis even after ultrasounds for endometriosis. No other significant health issues. I currently have a copper IUD that I've had for ~2 years. I don't have concrete plans to remove it yet, and it won't expire for many years so I'll need to make a conscious decision spanning a number of days to get it removed. I think there's roughly a 50/50 chance we pursue IVF with preimplantation genetic screening (elective). If we go the IVF/PGS route, that adds lead time to when I'm able to start getting pregnant and also will reduce the likelihood I rush to get pregnant. Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if I give birth (live birth) before my 30th birthday. Resolves NO if I turn 30 without having given live birth. Resolves N/A only if the market becomes unresolvable (e.g., I permanently leave Manifold). I will try to provide updates as they come. updates: You should note that this market was created because I started smelling things very intensely in the past ~3 days which prompted me to think about the probability I get pregnant in the short- and medium-term, but I don't actually think I am pregnant now (no other symptoms, copper IUD, got my period two weeks ago.) update 17-04-2026: partner recently went to a few parties with people in their 30s-60s without kids and he said their lives seemed dull (update towards YES slightly)

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 4/16/2032.

BLOCKCIRCLE/ONE TERMINAL/150+ VENUES/6 ASSET CLASSES/NON-CUSTODIAL

Sourced. Scored. Routed.

Blockcircle

Quantitative tools and real-time data for crypto and macro markets. Scorecards, trade signals, and research in one platform.

Trade
Whale AlphaPrediction AlphaPolitical AlphaInsider AlphaTrade Alpha
Discover
Momentum Trading EngineAsset Outperformer EngineMarket Reversal EngineAlpha Hunter SuiteMarket Analysis
Scorecards
Global Liquidity ScorecardMacroeconomic Risk ScorecardAltcoin Market Scorecard
Resources
Pulse DashboardEcosystem StatsTrending MarketsUser GuidesInvestment LabsTrading CourseOpen SourceBlog and News
Company
About UsPricingInstitutionalContactTerms & ConditionsPrivacy Policy
© 2026 Blockcircle. All rights reserved.
BUILT FOR THE TRADER·GLOBAL · MULTI-ASSET