Will I drop out of a PhD within 3 years?

Prediction market on manifold. I will be starting a PhD in chemical engineering at MIT this Fall. I'm aiming to graduate in 3 years (see linked market below). This question asks whether I will drop out of the program before the end of academic year 3/start of academic year 4. (https://manifold.markets/embed/ArunJohnson/will-i-graduate-with-a-phd-in-3-yea)Apr 24, 12:22am: Will I still be trying to get a PhD in 3 years? → Will I drop out of a PhD within 3 years?

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 9/6/2026.