Will I consider the next UK General Election "a First Past the Post shitshow"?

Prediction market on manifold. At market creation, the UK polls are all over the place. There are five parties polling above 10% nationally, and that's discounting strong performances of the regional parties. This is a situation where First Past the Post does not shine. So I ask you to forecast: will I consider the end result of the next UK general election a shitshow with FPTP playing a primary role in that shitshow? This will resolve to a vibes-based percentage so below is a non-exhaustive list of things I will be considering. I will resolve to 0%/20%/40%/60%/80%/100% to avoid any tedious debate about whether it's 87% or 93% or whatever. Strong signals I'll consider it a FPTP shitshow: High Gallagher Index (20 or higher would be a very strong signal) At- or near-record low national voteshare for the winning party High number of seats won on extremely low voteshares Any kind of hung parliament Strong signals I'll consider it NOT a FPTP shitshow: A strong majority for the winning party this is the primary reason I don't consider 2024 a FPTP shitshow - despite high Gallagher index and low voteshare for Labour, the end result was a clear majority of MPs returned and thus ability to govern, i.e. not a shitshow (for FPTP reasons, at least). Low Gallagher Index (15 or lower) Winning party taking 40% + of the national vote The main opposition party (post-election) being the clear second place with a significant lead over third-place parties. If FPTP is not the voting system for the next UK General Election then this will resolve NO. Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Hung parliament clarification: A hung parliament can still be considered a FPTP shitshow even if a hung parliament would have occurred under other voting systems. However, the Gallagher Index will be considered: Low Gallagher Index with hung parliament may indicate it's a "what voters want" issue rather than a FPTP issue (less likely to be considered a shitshow) If hung parliament results from two very similar parties clearly splitting their vote share, this pushes more towards "is a shitshow" Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the UK moves to a FPTP derivative system (such as a majority bonus system), it will be treated as equivalent to the current FPTP system for resolution purposes.

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2029.