[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Prediction market on manifold. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41138)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution. Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026 or be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.

Liquidity: $5,100. Resolves: 12/31/2026.