[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41144) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution. Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026 or be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated. If either the Rapid Support Forces or Sudanese Armed Forces are completely defeated, such that they control no permanent territory, this question will also resolve as Yes.

Liquidity: $5,100. Resolves: 12/31/2026.