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Prediction market on manifold. Linked to the ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know". If in 20 years, a brief review of the evidence convinces me that the sperm count decline was substantially real, I will resolve this YES. This is true even if the decline has stopped by 2043 (ie scientists then believe it was declining now, but is no longer declining at that time).
24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $2,515. Resolves: 1/2/2043.