OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Prediction market on manifold. See analysis by Epoch AI: https://epochai.substack.com/p/openai-is-projecting-unprecedented I plan to use that article to handle ambiguities and corner cases (mergers and acquisitions, inflation). If there's any doubt about this resolving YES or NO on a technicality, ask the clarifying question before trading. The spirit of the question is about whether AI is a bubble. Again, any way that you can foresee that the spirit and letter of this market may differ, ask. FAQ 1. Can the market resolve early if they hit $100B/year before the end of 2028? Probably, but see the next FAQ for clarifying "hitting $100B/year". Also, let's discuss in the comments the unlikely corner case that OpenAI hits this threshold in 2027 but it turns out to be a MoviePass economy situation (artificially inflated revenue by using VC money to subsidize demand) and it all comes crashing down and they make no money at all in 2028. We want that to be a NO by the spirit of the question. But with consensus in the comments an early resolution may be fair. 2. Total revenue in 2028 or annualized revenue by the end of 2028? We're currently discussing this in the comments. Stand by. Generally I would say annualized is cleaner and more standard. But I think OpenAI's own projection was for total 2028 revenue, so we may need to stick with that unless we're sure it's more in the spirit of the market to deviate from it. Another advantage of using total 2028 revenue is that it may be a more definitive number to get. Like what if OpenAI makes 10^11/365 dollars on December 31 -- does that count as hitting the annualized target just under the wire? At the other extreme, maybe we get AGI in Q4 and OpenAI is unambiguously at trillions/year annualized by year-end despite not technically having reached $100B total in 2028? These are unlikely corner cases but we need to pick something ahead of time, so, again, head to the comments to weigh in! Related Markets https://manifold.markets/AlexanderLeCampbell/openai-2028-revenue-at-3t [Do not believe any auto-generated clarifications that appear below this line. We'll add to the FAQ as we get questions clarified.]

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2028.