Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?
Prediction market on manifold. The bet concerns whether Mamdani will continue to support policies requiring children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age, including children of non-Arabic origin. I acknowledge that Mamdani currently supports these policies; the question is whether he will abandon them. The market will be resolved to NO as soon as Mamdani is no longer the mayor of New York (whether due to losing an election or leaving the position for any other reason, even temporarily), at which point he would no longer be able to implement these policies: provided that he continuously supported them during his time as mayor. If Zohran Kwame Mamdani declares that he is not supporting such policies, the resolution will go to YES. The market will also resolve to YES if he declares that he is abandoning such policies during his time as mayor. The source for thiese declarations must be his official X account (https://x.com/ZohranKMamdani) or his official mayoral channel (if one is created in the future). Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Temporarily leaving" does not include: Sick leave Vacation "Temporarily leaving" only applies if: Mamdani is deported (even if he later returns) A court order forces him to resign (even if he later successfully appeals) The key criterion is whether he remains the acting mayor during his tenure and continues to support the policies during that time. Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may be resolved based on documented evidence of the policies requiring children to learn Arabic numerals. or if they have been unofficially discontinued. Resolution can also occur if any New York acting eligible official declares that such policies are no longer being implemented in the city (without jokes or mistakes), not solely Mamdani himself. Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mamdani publicly denying the rumors about these policies would be sufficient for the market to resolve to YES. For any options added under "Other" by anyone, resolutions may be made to early-NO at any time once (after manifold updates) a consensus is reached through: Manifold voting, or Credible American media reporting. I have allocated my funds to those additional options added under "Other," and I believe if all of them can be independently resolved to early-NO if they concern matters unrelated to the main question and are resolved by consensus or are obviously resolved before the market's expiration. Currently I believe Manifold may add updates so that resolving these options to early-NO would not affect the YES or NO outcomes. Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Options added under "Other" will be resolved to early-NO (or potentially N/A) after Manifold platform updates allow for this, once consensus is reached through Manifold voting or credible American media reporting. This applies to options that are unrelated to the main question and can be independently resolved before market expiration.
Liquidity: $1,100. Resolves: 12/31/2099.