Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Prediction market on manifold. The Indian securities regulator, SEBI, has temporarily banned Jane Street from accessing the local markets due to alleged market manipulation. This market will resolve as true if Jane Street is found to have been involved in market manipulation by the Indian authorities. It will also resolve as true if Jane Street arrives at a settlement paying more than $100M without acknowledging any wrongdoing. Some press coverage: https://www.ft.com/content/41c4789a-afa6-462c-a6ea-9704c2ba78a7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-04/india-bars-jane-street-from-accessing-its-securities-market https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/india-cracks-down-on-jane-streets-lucrative-derivatives-trades-b59b0c17 [link preview]

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 7/6/2026.