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Prediction market on manifold. In July 2025, Indian stock market regulator SEBI banned Jane Street Capital in India for market manipulation of BANKNIFTY & NIFTY50 index options. Wikipedia This market will resolve to my subjective probability of Jane Street having done anything against the law that relates to the controversy referenced above. I will extend this market until I feel the time is right, which will almost certainly be after any relevant legal cases are over. I will not close the market ahead of schedule. Disclaimer: This is a very subjective market. Further, I am not terribly informed about finance. I will probably heavily defer to others (such as Matt Levine and Alexander Gerko). I will not trade in this market.
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2030.