Will the Cape declare independence before 2030?

Prediction market on manifold. Cape independence is the political movement to make the Western Cape province, and often other regions of the Eastern and Northern Cape provinces, an independent state from the rest of South Africa. This market will resolve affirmatively if a political party, group, or referendum representing a plurality of the residents of the Cape (or any substantial subset of territory therein, such as Cape Town) declare their independence from South Africa before the beginning of 2030.

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2030.