Will the NIH indirect cost cap stick?

Prediction market on manifold. Background On February 7, 2025, the NIH announced a new policy capping indirect costs (facilities and administrative costs) at 15% of total costs for all grants, effective February 10, 2025. This represents a significant change from the previous system where indirect cost rates were negotiated individually with institutions, often ranging from 30-70%. The policy affects both new grants and existing grants moving forward. Resolution Criteria Resolves NO if: A court permanently overturns the indirect cost cap The administration reverses the policy Any other action that effectively reverts the policy to its original state The market creator determines the issue appears definitively resolved Resolves YES if by December 31st, 2026: The original 15% cap remains in effect A similar policy that effectively eliminates >15% of total funding for research costs is in place and appears permanent Note: A congressional budget cut of ≥15% to NIH funding would not count as a similar policy The market creator will be the final arbiter for any ambiguous situations and will not participate in trading. Considerations Research institutions have historically opposed similar proposals through lobbying and negotiations Legal challenges or legislative actions could potentially emerge The policy's implementation may face practical challenges from research institutions that depend on higher indirect cost rates Clinical research and trials may be particularly impacted by this cap Previous attempts to implement similar policies have been reversed due to institutional pressure Update 2025-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ambiguity in Resolution: The resolution will be based on the de facto reality of funding at the time the issue is determined to be settled. The market creator will decide when the outcome is definitively settled. Update 2025-02-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Total Effective Budget Focus The market will now resolve based on the total effective budget, defined as the actual funding available for research after accounting for the cap. The 15% indirect cap is clarified to amount to roughly a 25% reduction in the total effective budget. The resolution will remain YES even if the indirect cost cap is adjusted upward (for example, to 20%), as long as the reduction in the total effective budget is reduced by more than 15%.

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.