Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?
Prediction market on manifold. In October, 2024 a preprint appeared on biorxiv which claims that "basal tadpole physiology can sense and react to the absence of Earth’s minute magnetic field of approximately 50 µT." This question resolves yes if this core finding is replicated by a completely independent team in the next 10 years. By "independent" I mean that nobody on the original paper is on the replication paper. Having the same funding source is OK. Here's the preprint: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.10.617626v2 More information: https://www.thetadpoleexperiment.org/
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 7/4/2035.