Will Bougainville Island achieve independence from Papua New Guinea before 2029?

Prediction market on manifold. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-09/png-selects-former-governor-general-for-bougainville-talks/104328676 Bougainville is trying to gain independence because the mineral wealth of Papua New Guinea comes from their island and they pay the environmental costs of the mining operations but don't receive a higher share of the profits than any other Papuan. Papua New Guinea is supposedly willing to grant them independence, but it hasn't happened yet. Will it before 2029?

Liquidity: $100. Resolves: 1/2/2029.