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Prediction market on manifold. I don't know whether Indonesian math olympiad people has manifold or not, but here it goes: Each person will resolve YES/NO on whether or not they will qualify for Indonesia's IMO 2026 team. If a person qualifies but cannot participate due to visa issues, IMO 2026 cancelled, etc, it will still resolve YES. If a historically unprecedented event happens where a person qualifies but declines, that person will resolve NO, and the person who takes the spot will resolve YES. Danica Odelia, as a IMO 2025 contestant, will have her score cut by 5% Past IMO veteran scores usually get cut, by 5%-15%. Historical veteran discounts (only ones I have data): TST 2026: Veteran scores got a 5% cut TST 2025: Veteran scores got a 8% cut TST 2024: Veteran scores got a 7% cut TST 2023: Veteran scores got a 10% cut TST 2018: Veteran scores got a 10% cut (Example: if you got a score of 79 and got a 8% cut, your final score would be 79 × 0.92 = 72.68) The only IMO veteran is HM IMO 2025 Danica Odelia, the rest have not yet made IMO.
24h Volume: $4,242.554. Liquidity: $400. Resolves: 6/30/2026.