If/when a nation in each geopolitical sphere first/next becomes communist, will it be invaded within a year?

Prediction market on manifold. Communist here means >50% of the population lives under a government that openly intends to immediately establish a political system with completely worker-controlled industry and decentralised planned economy, regardless of the governmental and social policies There does not need to be an official declaration of war, but it must involve some foreign troops, such as those deployed in overseas military bases on their territory, so purely funding a local coup or insurgency wouldn't count The year timer for a given geopolitical sphere starts once the first/next nation within becomes communist according to the above definition, and includes the invasion of other nations within the same sphere that become communist within the same window Some maps and infographics for context: [image]https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-military-personnel-deployments-country/ [image]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/10/infographic-us-military-presence-around-the-world-interactive [image]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel#/media/File:Countries_by_soldier_count.svg [image]https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/s9u1by/map_of_major_military_alliances_in_the_world/ [image]https://libraryguides.unh.edu/Ukraine/Charts

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