Which country will lose territory to a newly founded country by 2050? [add responses]

Prediction market on manifold. an answer will resolve YES: if a newly founded country will control territory of the country in the answer and regards it as its territory. the new country needs to be recognized by at least 20 UN member states. an answer will resolve NO: if it is unresolved by end of 2050 a territorial annexation by an existing country does not resolve an answer.

Liquidity: $1,550. Resolves: 12/31/2050.