Will stainless steel prices exceed 3500 yuan per tonne on May 1, 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if the published stainless steel price index or official price quotations from major Chinese stainless steel producers or industry associations report prices exceeding 3500 yuan per tonne on May 1, 2026. This market reflects the impact of Indonesia's nickel ore quota cuts on stainless steel production costs, as nickel is a key input for stainless steel alloys, especially grades like 304. Current prices have risen due to supply constraints and cost pressures from nickel feedstock shortages. Only spot or contract prices for stainless steel products (not scrap or unrelated steel grades) count. Data sources include official industry price bulletins and major stainless steel producer announcements. Indonesia's reduction in nickel ore RKAB quota has caused stainless steel producers to raise their prices, indicating potential cost pressures and supply constraints affecting nickel-dependent sectors. Source: Article

Liquidity: $100. Resolves: 5/1/2026.