Will stainless steel prices exceed 4000 yuan per tonne on July 1, 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if the average market price for stainless steel in China is strictly above 4000 yuan per metric tonne on July 1, 2026, based on official industry price indexes or major stainless steel producer announcements such as those from Baosteel or the China Metals Market. This threshold is chosen considering recent stainless steel price hikes driven by Indonesia's nickel ore quota cuts, which have increased nickel feedstock costs impacting stainless steel production. The market price should reflect spot or near-spot transaction prices on the settlement date; futures or contract prices for later delivery do not count. Indonesia's reduction in nickel ore RKAB quota has caused stainless steel producers to raise their prices, indicating potential cost pressures and supply constraints affecting nickel-dependent sectors. Source: Article

Liquidity: $100. Resolves: 7/1/2026.