Who will be IDN1 at IMO 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves to the person who got rank 1 in 2026 Indonesia IMO TST. The IDN title is ordered by the rank on the 2026 Indonesia IMO TST, which is from APMO 2026 and IMO Shortlist Test scores. Danica Odelia, as a IMO 2025 contestant, will have her score cut by 5% Context: Past IMO veteran scores will usually get cut, by 5%-15%, we are still waiting for the exact figure this year. Historical veteran discounts (only ones I have data): TST 2026: Veteran scores got a 5% cut TST 2025: Veteran scores got a 8% cut TST 2024: Veteran scores got a 7% cut TST 2023: Veteran scores got a 10% cut TST 2018: Veteran scores got a 10% cut (Example: if you got a score of 79 and got a 8% cut, your final score would be 79 × 0.92 = 72.68) The only IMO veteran is HM IMO 2025 Danica Odelia, the rest have not yet made IMO. There are 16 contestants as listed above. I cannot remove other as a choice I guess it would resolve other iff Indonesia doesn't select a team :p

Liquidity: $425. Resolves: 6/30/2026.