Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Start date: April 9 , 2024 End date: April 9, 2026 Market with a shorter timeline: (https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/will-ai-be-able-to-write-compile-an-0508a14ba6a3?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)inspired from this tweet by Andrej Karpathy: Btw writing the llm.c training code would imo be a very interesting, impressive, self-contained and very meta challenge for LLM agents. The prompt is: Take the PyTorch code train_gpt2.py And write, compile and unit test a single .c file that reproduces the training: train_gpt2.c The current models are not there, but we can check back in a year or two or so. If that worked... [tweet]

24h Volume: $1,498.187. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 4/9/2026.