Will thale cress, maize, and soybean achieve 50% faster transformation-to-T1 seed timelines before 2030?

Prediction market on metaculus. *Triticum aestivum* (common wheat) is a crop of the *Poaceae* family which makes up roughly 90-95% of the wheat produced worldwide. In many temperate field conditions, wheat typically produces about one plant generation per year. Whilst no issue for plant cultivation, this does pose an issue for plant development in research by significantly limiting the speed of plant breeding and research. > It typically takes eight years to develop a new variety in the UK. During the COVID-19 pandemic, we made a vaccine in one year instead of ten. ###### Source: [ARIA — Programmable Plants](https://www.aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/programmable-plants/) [Speed breeding](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-017-0083-8) is a methodology used to accelerate plant breeding by creating optimal growing conditions tailored to a specific plant. These ideal conditions are created by controlling the photoperiod duration, temperature and humidity levels, and radiant intensity, and can be used alongside other approaches such as gene editing. Utilisation of speed breeding allows crops such as *Triticum aestivum* to increase generation turnover from approximately one generation per year under field conditions to four to six generations per year in controlled environments. This substantially reduces the time required to develop genetically stable lines. Consequently, it shortens the overall cycle time between genetic modification and phenotypic evaluation (the transform–grow–phenotype cycle).

Resolves: 1/1/2030.