Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Prediction market on manifold. In April 2022, Eliezer Yudkowsky published Less Wrong post entitled MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy. The post declared, in a kidding-not-kidding style, that humanity would not solve the alignment problem, and humanity would soon be extinguished by unfriendly AI. This option will resolve as "yes" if Scott Alexander publishes a post in a similar vein, namely The post declares that humanity is doomed, and that doom will be coming quickly The post is written either earnestly, or it is written in a style that leaves the reader uncomfortably unsure if Alexander is earnest. Themes of doom and futility should be a central conciet of the post. (A short parenthetical in an otherwise unrelated post would not suffice) For the purpose of this bet a "post" will include literary media outside of the blogosphere. For example, an oral address or a chapter in a nonfiction book. Off the cuff comments, such as a reply to a reader in the comments section of his blog, will not count as a "post." Fictional work by Scott Alexander might fullfill this option, if the work as a whole makes readers suspect Alexander is an AI doomer. But if the overall arc of the story is anti-doomer, then I will not count it as a doomer post. Added 12/5: If Alexander tries to put some polyanna spin on world doom, then option will still resolve as 'yes'. Examples of polyanna spin would include "Yes, were are p > .95 all going to die next year, but think about how sweet that .05 probability where we survive this whole mess is going to be" or "Yes we're all going to die soon, but isn't it cool that we get to see the most significant event in human history?" This point of this option is to predict whether Alexander will predict that we all die, not whether Alexander will try to cheer us up.

Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 12/31/2029.