Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
Prediction market on manifold. Note that to be declared eradicated, there must be zero reported cases for 3 years. From https://www.who.int/activities/certifying-eradication-of-dracunculiasis: To be declared free of dracunculiasis, a country that has stopped transmission of the disease must have reported zero indigenous cases through active surveillance for at least 3 consecutive calendar years.
Liquidity: $2,002. Resolves: 1/1/2031.