Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030
Prediction market on manifold. Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSS, FSB, ФСБ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) - Russian security agency, successor to KGB. Resolves YES when several reputable sources report that government or parliament of Russia(*) or US or UK or EU or UN officially recognizes division of FSB or whole FSB or whole Russia as a terrorist organization. The recognition could be a direct proclamation OR inclusion in the list of terrorist organization OR terrorist states. Proclamations from other security agencies is not enogh to trigger a YES resolution, it should be political decision by government or parliment, not by some (high ranking) officer or expert. Otherwise resolves to NO on January 1st 2030. *Russia = Russian Federation or any internationally recognized state, that is official successor to Russian Federation. In case of multiple successor states, resolves to YES once 50% of all sucessor states declare official recognition. E.g. such recognition by Ukraine would not trigger YES resolution, as well as recognition by ex-RF state that is not direct successor to RF (think: Chechnya or Saha). However, recognition by ex-RF "Moskovia" would trigger YES resolution, in case "Moskovia" proclaims itself as successor to RF and there are no other successor states OR there is only 2 successor states ("Moskovia" counts as 50% then).
Liquidity: $2,000. Resolves: 1/1/2030.