If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

Prediction market on manifold. This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing. This question will resolve after the conflict between China and Taiwan ends. If there is still fighting on the island after multiple years and the US intervenes much later in the war, this still resolves YES. Direct intervention requires US forces engaging Chinese ones, this can include and is not limited to: Engaging Chinese naval assets, deploying boots on the ground in Taiwan, missile strikes on Chinese military bases, etc. Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If China gains control of Taiwan through political (non-military) means, the market resolves N/A.

Liquidity: $1,800. Resolves: 12/31/2099.