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Prediction market on manifold. This is a copy of this market, but excluding desire for sex as a psychological attribute: (https://manifold.markets/embed/CarsonGale/in-2040-will-expert-consensus-sugge)I will periodically spend time reviewing the current state of expert discourse regarding innate psychological differences by biological sex. This review will consist of light-to-moderate internet reading, browsing studies that have been completed, and requesting the assistance of any personal acquaintances that can best help inform me. I will make a subjective judgment regarding the "experts" on this topic as of 2040, which will likely be a list of individuals who I (with the help of light research) consider best-informed in that future period. There needs to be expert "consensus" for this market to resolve. If there is no consensus, I will update the market close timing to be 5 years in the future. I will continue to push out the close date until there is expert consensus. A rough approximation of consensus from my perspective is ~80% of experts voicing roughly the same thing. I will interpret "strong" subjectively. I don't have a great threshold in mind, but I can try to respond to questions in the comments section if helpful. By "innate" I am referring to the nature/nurture question (i.e., without regard to societal priming). I am referring to "biological sex" at birth - not gender. Any psychological differences that regard one's desire for sex do not count for purposes of this market. I'm not particularly knowledgeable about this subject as of market creation, but my rough understanding is that - as of market creation - there is no expert consensus on this question. I may "n/a" and/or "unlist" this question preemptively if it becomes a comment cesspool or if my quality of life decreases for having created the market. Apr 3, 7:11am: Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Ex: sex desire) → Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2041.