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Prediction market on manifold. King Charles III was recently diagnosed with cancer, as per a press release from Buckingham Palace (https://www.royal.uk/a-statement-from-buckingham-palace-5Feb24) Also here: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68208157.amp Survival in cancer is typically considered if the patient survives 5 years after the initial diagnosis. Clarifications: 1) If King Charles dies of any causes in the 5 years after the diagnosis, market will resolve No. 2) If the date of diagnosis is made public, that will be the start date. If the date of diagnosis is not made public, it will be considered to start the day of the announcement, Feb 5th 2024, and the 5 year deadline will be on Feb 5th 2029.
Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 2/13/2029.