There are no aliens or distinguishable alien materials within 100 light-years of Earth.

Prediction market on manifold. One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions. Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2100.