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Prediction market on manifold. Will any of the following automakers deliver a road‑legal passenger vehicle using Donut Lab’s all‑solid‑state Donut Battery as its main traction battery to a retail customer on or before 2030‑12‑31: Toyota, Volkswagen Group, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Nissan, Kia, BYD, General Motors (incl. Chevrolet), BMW, Mercedes‑Benz, Stellantis, Suzuki, Changan, Geely, Renault, Mitsubishi, Porsche, Mazda? Resolution criteria Covered automakers: Exactly this list: Toyota; Volkswagen Group; Ford; Hyundai; Honda; Nissan; Kia; BYD; General Motors (including Chevrolet as a GM brand); BMW; Mercedes‑Benz; Stellantis; Suzuki; Changan; Geely; Renault; Mitsubishi; Porsche; Mazda. Vehicle type: Must be a series‑production, road‑legal passenger vehicle (car, SUV, or light van) homologated for public roads in at least one country. Prototypes, concept cars, test mules, and track‑only vehicles do not count. Battery requirement: The automaker or Donut Lab must explicitly state that the production vehicle’s main traction battery is Donut Lab’s all‑solid‑state Donut Battery (or a clearly named direct successor from Donut Lab), not just “a solid‑state battery” in general. Retail delivery requirement: At least one non‑employee retail customer must physically receive the vehicle (not just place a preorder or deposit). Evidence can be an official press release, regulatory filing, or reputable news report clearly stating that customer deliveries of that specific model have started. Time requirement: Resolves YES if such a delivery happens on or before 2030‑12‑31 local time at the place of delivery. Resolves NO if no such documented delivery by any listed automaker has occurred by that date. Edge cases If Donut Battery is used by OEMs not on the list (e.g., Verge motorcycles or a smaller car brand), this does not affect this market; it still resolves NO unless one of the named automakers qualifies. If a listed automaker uses a different in‑house solid‑state pack, that does not count; it must be explicitly identified as a Donut Lab battery. If Donut Lab is acquired or rebranded, the battery still counts as long as it is clearly the same Donut technology and this is publicly stated.
24h Volume: $1.804. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 2/1/2031.