Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?

Prediction market on manifold. Will any of the following automakers deliver a road‑legal passenger vehicle using Donut Lab’s all‑solid‑state Donut Battery as its main traction battery to a retail customer on or before 2030‑12‑31: Toyota, Volkswagen Group, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Nissan, Kia, BYD, General Motors (incl. Chevrolet), BMW, Mercedes‑Benz, Stellantis, Suzuki, Changan, Geely, Renault, Mitsubishi, Porsche, Mazda? Resolution criteria Covered automakers: Exactly this list: Toyota; Volkswagen Group; Ford; Hyundai; Honda; Nissan; Kia; BYD; General Motors (including Chevrolet as a GM brand); BMW; Mercedes‑Benz; Stellantis; Suzuki; Changan; Geely; Renault; Mitsubishi; Porsche; Mazda.​ Vehicle type: Must be a series‑production, road‑legal passenger vehicle (car, SUV, or light van) homologated for public roads in at least one country. Prototypes, concept cars, test mules, and track‑only vehicles do not count.​ Battery requirement: The automaker or Donut Lab must explicitly state that the production vehicle’s main traction battery is Donut Lab’s all‑solid‑state Donut Battery (or a clearly named direct successor from Donut Lab), not just “a solid‑state battery” in general.​ Retail delivery requirement: At least one non‑employee retail customer must physically receive the vehicle (not just place a preorder or deposit). Evidence can be an official press release, regulatory filing, or reputable news report clearly stating that customer deliveries of that specific model have started.​ Time requirement: Resolves YES if such a delivery happens on or before 2030‑12‑31 local time at the place of delivery. Resolves NO if no such documented delivery by any listed automaker has occurred by that date.​ Edge cases If Donut Battery is used by OEMs not on the list (e.g., Verge motorcycles or a smaller car brand), this does not affect this market; it still resolves NO unless one of the named automakers qualifies.​ If a listed automaker uses a different in‑house solid‑state pack, that does not count; it must be explicitly identified as a Donut Lab battery.​ If Donut Lab is acquired or rebranded, the battery still counts as long as it is clearly the same Donut technology and this is publicly stated.

Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 2/1/2031.