Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Prediction market on manifold. Disasters which count Pandemic Ai mishap Terrorism Famine Disease Nuclear strike or accident Infrastructure collapse War also counts Deaths from old age, traffic, etc don't count unless related. A death by disaster is an unintended (by the victim, at a prior state in time) death. Eg being converted to a cult which causes suicide can still be a disaster. Since disasters have different time scales (instant vs gradual), it can be hard to quantify. This is how I'd like to do it here: at any starting point in time consider all residents of anxiety or region. If within a year at least 10% are dead from a disaster then YES. So you can start at any point in time and that is the group of people who count. So if the people later flee they individually still count. If later refugees come to the city after the time we are checking, they wouldn't count for this interval.

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 6/30/2035.