Will a democrat win the CA 1st congressional district special election to replace Doug LaMalfa?

Prediction market on manifold. Doug LaMalfa died on January 5th, 2026. He was a republican representing California's 1st congressional district. Will a democrat win the special election to fill the seat? To resolve yes, the winner must be elected as a democrat. An independent caucusing with democrats won't count. Primaries have been scheduled for June 2nd and the election has been scheduled for August 4th: https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/2026-cd1 If a special election isn't held before the next regularly-scheduled election, resolves N/A.

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.